“Trump vs. Biden: Elections, Conflicts, and Economic Dynamics” 

The 2024 Impact

2024 is a decisive year for global politics and the economy.

With 64 countries electing their political representatives this year, the coming months will change the course of our economies and lives in the following years. The results of these elections will be visible not only through potential changes in trade and investment policies but also in increased political uncertainty and polarization.

Political attention must focus on two main areas: First, the upcoming European elections will be crucial as they will determine the composition of the E.U. parliament; at the same time, the U.S. elections are likely to have the most significant impact on the world’s political and economic outlook.

Although the American opponents running for the U.S. presidency are the same as four years ago, Trump and Biden, the geopolitical situation is certainly not the same as then.

Many of the world’s significant geopolitical risks in 2024 stem from existing conflicts and tensions.

Geopolitical Risks and Conflicts

Experts have identified the U.S. elections, a possible escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas into a broader conflagration in the Middle East, and a further deepening of the war between Russia and Ukraine as the most influential risks that could heavily influence the global geopolitical situation.

The war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East – further complicated by Houthi missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea -highlight how geopolitical developments are a crucial determinant of global economic performance in 2024.

Russia has a material advantage, and its economic and military capacities have been reinforced. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling with labor shortages and needs to boost defence production. 

In addition, political and economic support from the United States is weakening, while the European Union (E.U.) is suffering from fiscal constraints and a lack of political consensus. Aside from political implications, such as damage to NATO and U.S. credibility, a partition of Ukraine would continue to pose challenges to the global economy, mainly through further disruption of oil and food markets.

Border Dynamics and U.S. Political Landscape

Hundreds of thousands of people from Central and South America and beyond have crossed the river in recent months, hoping for a better life in the United States. But their vast numbers have become a galvanizing issue, especially in the run-up to the November presidential election, with Republicans in Congress blocking further U.S. aid to Ukraine and Israel, calling on President Joe Biden’s administration to do more to stop the flow.

This was the central issue on which President Donald Trump based his candidacy in 2016 and on which he decided to build again this year:

“To fix our immigration system, we must change our leadership in Washington, and we must change it quickly. Sadly, there is no other way. The truth is our immigration system is worse than anybody ever realized.” These were the exact words of former President Donald Trump during the September 1, 2016, meeting in Phoenix, Arizona. A few weeks later, Donald Trump will be elected President of the United States of America on January 20, 2017.

The border will be one of the main issues pushing Republicans to victory again this year: He believes the situation at the border has worsened over the years and bases much of his election on this: “This is the ‘worst border ever in the history of the world there’s never been a border where 15, 16, maybe 18 million people have already crossed and nobody has any idea what the number is […] they come from jails, prisons, they come from mental institutions. ” says former President Donald Trump at ‘Hannity’ in Eagle Pass, Texas, February 29, 2024 to discuss President Biden’s border crisis “Was one of the primary reasons in 2016 that I ran, and I ran on other things but I ran on the border largely.”

Challenges Facing the Biden Administration

The situation for Biden, even though Democrats may criticize Trump on many fronts and from many points of view, is in the worst of conditions. The most recent document regarding the current situation of Biden, who is accused of possessing secret Afghanistan documents in his home, is that of Special Counsel Robert K. Hur in his “Report on the Investigation Into Unauthorized Removal, Retention, and Disclosure of Classified Documents Discovered at Locations Including the Penn Eiden Center and the Delaware Private Residence of President Joseph R. Eiden, Jr.” published in February 2024. In the document, the current President of the USA is described in the following regarding his scarce memory: “Mr. Biden said he did not remember anything at all about this incident, including whether he actually found classified documents in his basement office.” ” During his interview with our office, Mr. Eiden said he did not remember finding marked classified documents at any time after the end of the Obama administration and before he was elected President.” Hur adds that “the President of The United States could not remember when he served as Vice President, and also could not remember the timing of the passing of his own son.”

Conclusion

So 2024 will bring many socio-political, economic, and geopolitical changes that will affect the future of our nations and our lives: Biden and Trump, Hamas and Israel, Ukraine and Russia, not to mention hundreds of conflicts, elections, and major events.

Cover Image Source:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/podcast/dispatch/the-frontline-dispatch-presents-the-choice-2020-trump-vs-biden/

Sources:

1. Trump on the Border: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6347970610112

2. Report Hur on Biden: https://www.justice.gov/storage/report-from-special-counsel-robert-k-hur-february- 2024.pdf

3. Transcript of Donald Trump 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/02/us/politics/transcript-trump-immigrationspeech.html

4. https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-are-geopolitical-risks-affecting-the-world-economy 

 

Dimitrie Radu

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